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The winning post of the Epsom Derby, showing the changes in gradient up to the post in red.
Taking a look at the current participants for the 2024 renewal of the Betfred Epsom Derby and Oaks, there are many colts and fillies that descend from Galileo, Montjeu, and Sea The Stars.
As a sire, Galileo has one Epsom Derby contender come the first saturday in June, with his United States bred son Mr Hampstead. Currently trading at 150/1 odds, and based on his current form, Mr Hampstead looks well held by the other fancied runners. Mr Hampstead will however still be lining up and doing his best to give his late sire Galileo a sixth Derby winner.
City Of Troy shown winning on debut at the Curragh
The current favourite for the Epsom Derby is the pictured City Of Troy (Justify), who is trading at a shortened 7/2 to win the 2024 renewal of the race. A colt that is bred in the absolute purple, being by a son of American Triple Crown hero Justify, a winner of the 2018 Belmont Stakes G1 2400m (1m4f) running over the derby distance, is out of the Grade 1 winning mare Together Forever (Galileo). Together Forever's run in the 2015 Epsom Oaks became a non-event for her, after the regally bred and highly fancied daughter of Galileo got bumped into coming around Tattenham Corner, and because of it, finished back in 7th place behind Qualify (Fastnet Rock).
However her full sister Forever Together won the Oaks in 2018, showing that she Together Forever was bred to win the Oaks despite her unfortunate event. City Of Troy is bred to win the Derby on paper given his pedigree and stamina influence from both his parents. A Grade 1 undefeated Juvenile in 2023, City Of Troy’s conditioner Aidan O’Brien has put his disappointing Guineas run behind him, and stated during a media visit to Ballydoyle after the running of the 2000 Guineas that he wasn’t sure if any other runner he had previously sent to Epsom had the ability that City Of Troy carries. City Of Troy will be looking to add a second broodmare sire title to Galileo's tally in this year's renewal of the race, after Auguste Rodin (Deep Impact) won last year.
Bellum Justum winning the 1m3f Blue Riband Trial over the course at Epsom.
Sea The Stars (Cape Cross), a winner of the Derby in 2009, will be looking to add to his tally of siring a second derby winner after Harzand won in 2016. He currently has two runners declared for the Derby, in the Juddmonte owned Macduff, who is currently trading at 10/1, and Bellum Justum is at 20/1. Macduff is out of a daughter of the speedster sire, and multiple Grade 1 performing sprinter Bated Breath (Dansili) who is injecting speed into his pedigree. Bated Breath is a grandson of Danehill, and as mentioned about Danehill in Galileo's article previously, has sired descendents that have won the Derby, which assumes that Macduff is bred to stay the derby trip. Macduff was a runner up on his last outing, when beaten by Godolphin's Arabian Crown (Dubawi) in the Classic Trial (G3) over 2000m (10 Furlongs) at Sandown. Arabian Crown had an entry for the Derby, and was highly fancied in the Ante Post betting was looking to give his sire Dubawi a first Derby success as a sire, and was very much on track to do so. Fate was however not on his side unfortunately, and Arabian Crown picked up an injury just weeks before competing in the derby, in which he was withdrawn. Based on how Macduff stayed on in the Sandown Classic, he should withstand the Derby distance.
The other Sea The Stars runner is Bellum Justum, who is also out of a speedy damsire line being a daughter of multiple Group 1 victor Oasis Dream (Green Desert). The Andrew Balding trained son of Sea The Stars won his last outing at Epsom itself over 2000m (1m2f furlongs) in a Listed race, which suggests he liked the course and handled the test of balance when conquering Tattenham Corner, as well as the uphill finish. The ultimate test for him would be if he could travel a further 400m (2 Furlongs) of climbing uphill left, right, as well as handling the crowds come June 1st.
Sea The Stars could earn a grandsire title if his 20/1 odds grandson Dallas Star (Cloth Of Stars) pulls a cat out the bag. Dallas Star beat the Lingfield Derby runner up in Illinois (Galileo) in the Ballysax Stakes G3, and prefers the soft ground. If the rain stays as predicted, he can't be left out.
One last colt to mention, while on the topic of descendants of Cape Cross, Voyage (Golden Horn) has only raced once over 2000m (10f) in which he subsequently won. The shortened at 14/1 odds on colt's pedigree suggests he is bred to win the Derby, as he is sired by 2015 Derby winner Golden Horn (Cape Cross), and out of a daughter of the 2001 Derby conquerer Galileo. However based on his form, it might be a tough ask to win the gruelling Derby at only your second visit to the track.
Another grandson of Cape Cross is Kamboo (Awtaad), out of a galileo mare is also a colt bred to win, however hasnt run this year, as well as further than a mile, so he might just need the outing against fancied runners.
Kamboo and Voyage will also be trying to give Galileo a second broodmare sire winner of the race.
Ambiente Friendly winning the Lingfield 1m3f Derby Trial convincingly
The exciting 4/1 odds on, the above pictured Ambiente Friendly (Gleneagles), earned these odds after winning his Derby trial in the Lingfield Derby beating Illinois (Galileo). Ambiente Friendly is a grandson of Galileo through his sire Gleneagles, who will be looking to give his sire a first win as a sire in this year’s classic race. A victory by Ambiente Freindly will add to Galileo’s tally of siring a grandson to win the Derby from a different son in Gleneagles. Gleneagles was very much a 1400-1600m (7 to 8 Furlong) horse, winning four Group 1 races, which makes it surprising that he sired a colt that could run 2200m (1m3f). The stamina could have descended from his grandsire Galileo, and Ambiente Friendly is out of a Fastnet Rock (Danehill) mare, adding a further probability to him winning when Danehill’s son Northern Light won in 2004.
Los Angeles (blue and red silks) winning the Leopardstown Derby Trial 1m2f
There are currently four sons of Camelot running in this year's renewal of the Derby. Undefeated, and Group 1 winning Juvenile, Los Angeles (Camelot) will be looking to increase the Derby winning percentage of the Montjeu bloodline in the race, especially now putting his hoof up after a facile victory in the Derby Trial Stakes (Group 3) at Leopardstown. Currently offered at a price of 7/2, the son of Camelot will be looking to follow in his sire's footsteps when Camelot won the 2012 Derby. Los Angeles has history against him, as the last Leopardstown Derby Trial runner to win the Derby was back in 2002, but he is however bred to win it and has a massive chance showing in his trial that he stays the trip.
Diera Mile is a second Camelot colt lining up, however based on his odds, form, and competition, looks to be well beaten by more fancied runners at 16/1.
Dancing Gemini is bred for winning the Derby, as he is a son of Camelot (2012 winner), and is out of the the daughter of the 2014 Derby hero Australia, in Lady Adelaide. His sire and dam sire both winning the race in 2012 and 2014 respectively, currently trading at 11/2, Dancing Gemini might be stretched at the Derby distance. He has previously won his two races at 1400m (7 Furlongs) and placed twice at a mile (8 Furlongs), including the French 2000 Guineas losing by a neck to Metropolitan when running on late. He ran on late that day, showing that he might be looking for more ground.
Frankel currently has one runner declared in the race in the form of Euphoric (Frankel), who will be looking to give his sire a second winner of the race. A runner up to the above mentioned Los Angeles, Euphoric looks held at 20/1 going 400m(2f) further.
Racing Post's interesting article on Derby Trends reported by Matt Rennie, showed trends based on the trials, distance, price, and verdict show very interesting observations.
With Trials, in the last decade, three Newmarket 2000 Guineas runners who didnt perform on the day, but showed up for the Epsom challenge were Australia (2014), Masar (2018), and Auguste Rodin (2023) giving City Of Troy a 30% chance of winning the Derby and makes him a massive runner.
At York, the G2 Dante has produced three Derby winners in the last decade in Workforce (2010), Golden Horn (2015), and Desert Crown (2022). Even though placed second, as did Workforce in 2020, Ancient Wisdom (Dubawi) will be looking to give his sire a first win in the race hailing from the Mr Prospector line at a 40% chance.
The Derby at Lingfield has produced two Epsom Derby winners in Anthony Van Dyck (2019) and Adayar (2021), which makes Ambiente Friendly a massive runner, especially after his wide margin victory over Illinois (Galileo). This gives Ambiente Friendly a 20% chance of winning.
As mentioned above, Los Angeles will have history against him with a 22 year drought of the Leopardstown Derby Trial producing an Epsom Derby winner, but is however bred and suited to win the race.
If we take a look at the past ten runners, 50% of the winners had raced and won their trials at 2000m (1m2f) prior to their wins in the Derby. These were Golden Horn (2015), Harzand (2016), Anthony Van Dyck (2019), Serpentine (2020), and Desert Crown in 2022). This gives Ambiente Friendly, Bellum Justum, and Los Angeles all won their trials at 1m2f and beyond, which suggests they should easily get the 1m4f trip.
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In the Epsom Oaks race today at 16.30pm GMT, out of the twelve fillies, nine fillies descend from Northern Dancer, through his sons Danzig, Green Desert, and Saddler's Wells.
Danzig sired Danehill and War Front, who both went on to sire Danehill Dancer and Summer Front Respectively. Danehill Dancer sired the grey Mastercraftsman, and Mastercraftsman, with Summer Front are respresented by one filly apiece in Treasure and War Chimes respectively. Treasure trading at 14/1 is out of a Dubawi mare, adding further Dubawi prominance to the Oaks line up being represented by his two daughters Ezeliya (13/8), Dance Sequence (8/1), and his grand daughter Making Dreams (Make Believe) at 50/1. All four fillies, plus two colts in Ancient Wisdom and God's window will be hoping to get Dubawi on the board as a winning sire in the Oaks and Derby.
You Got To Me just holding off the fast flying Rubies Are Red in the 1m3f Lingfield Oaks
7/1 shot Rubies Are Red, a full sister to Arc De Triomphe heroine Found, will be looking to give her late sire Galileo his 100th individual Group 1 winner, and a sixth oaks winner. She has a massive chance running to lose by a head to competitor You Got To Me (Nathaniel) at 1m3f and should relish the extra furlong (200m).
Galileo is a Grandsire of Oaks runner's Ylang Ylang (Frankel) at 13/8, Forest Fairy (Waldgeist) 11/2, and the above mentioned You Got To Me (Nathaniel) 12/1. Ylang Ylang ran in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket as her Derby Trial and will be looking to give her sire Frankel a Third Epsom Oaks winner today. Ylang Ylang will be looking to better her Guineas run and is bred to stay with Frankel already producing two Oaks winners, and a Derby winner.
Forest Fairy (Left) holding off Port Fairy to win the 1m3f Cheshire Oaks
Forest Fairy will be looking to give her sire Waldgeist a first winner as a sire of the Oaks, and after her win in the Cheshire Oaks at 1m3f, she should stay the trip of 1m4f holding off her rivals.
You Got To Me will be looking to give her sire Nathaniel a second Oaks winner, after her 1m3f victory in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, and on paper should be a massive contender.
Sea The Stars (Cape Cross) has a runner in the form of Seaward, who was third behind Forest Fairy in the Cheshire Oaks, after leading indicating she might have been stretched out on that day.
Sea The Stars sired Harzand in the 2016 Derby, and as a sire, Harzand is represented by his daughter Caught U Looking, trading at 18,1, who looks like she has her work cut out for her after a 4th in a 1m2f race.
the most interesting runner on the card has to be Secret Satire (Advertise), a daughter of three time Group 1 winning sprinter Advertise (Showcasing), who was a 6f specialist in his day. Secret Satire won the 1m2f Musidora Stakes G3 by two lengths, showing she stays the trip, despite being sired by a sprinter. Trading at 12/1, if Secret Satire is to win the Oaks, this will be huge for Advertise, as he will be able to sire sprinters and stayers, which is acrare occurance in most stallions.
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Picks for the big days
May 31st
15:10 Holland Cooper Coronation Cup (Group 1)
Win - Emily Upjohn
Each Way - Time Lock
Double - Emily Upjohn, Time Lock (Box)
Trifecta - Emily Upjohn, Time Lock, Hamish (Box)
Quartet - Emily Upjohn, Time Lock, Hamish, Luxembourg (Box)
16:30 Betfred Oaks (Group 1)
Win - Ezeliya (15/2)
Each Way - Rubies Are Red (10/1)
Double - Ezeliya, Rubies Are Red (Box)
Trifecta - Rubies Are Red, Ezeliya, You Got To Me (Box)
Quartet - Rubies Are Red, Ezeliya, You Got To Me, Secret Satire (Box)
June 1st
16:30 Betfred Derby (Group 1)
Win - City Of Troy (7/2)
Each Way - Ambiente Friendly (13/2)
Double - Ambiente Friendly, Los Angeles (Box)
Trifecta - Ambiente Friendly, Bellum Justum, Los Angeles (Box)
Quartet - Ambiente Friendly, Bellum Justum, City Of Troy, Los Angeles (Box)
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